The Power of Logic 5th Edition by Howard-Snyder – Test Bank

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The Power of Logic 5th Edition by Howard-Snyder – Test Bank

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Student: ___________________________________________________________________________
1. In “While some scientists may disagree, it is generally accepted that homosexuality is a genetic trait,” the
statement “some scientists may disagree” is a
A. hedge.
B. discount.
C. assurance.
D. premise.
2. The Principle of Charity requires that we
A.
put an ambiguous or unclear argument in the best possible light when rewriting it as a well-crafted
argument.
B. ignore mistakes in reasoning when we agree with an argument’s conclusion.
C. not distort an argument’s meaning when rewriting it as a well-crafted one.
D. correct any mistakes in reasoning in an argument we are analyzing.
3. Which of the following is an example of a report?
A.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and humans
are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than flee.
4. Which of the following is an example of an explanation?
A
.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and humans
are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than flee.
5. Which of the following is an example of an illustration?
A.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and humans
are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than flee.
6. The Principle of Fairness requires that we
A. consider an individual to be innocent until proven guilty.
B.
not eliminate anything—including repetitions, assurances, and so on—when rewriting an argument as a
well-crafted one.
C. place the burden of proof on the person whose view is contrary to the majority opinion.
D.
be loyal to the original argument and not distort its meaning when rewriting it as a well-crafted
argument.
7. Which of the following is not a principle for rewriting arguments as well-crafted ones?
A. Be fair and charitable in interpreting the argument.
B. Employ uniform language.
C. Eliminate excess verbiage (e.g., discounts, assurances, hedges, repetition).
D. Place all conclusions and subconclusions after all premises.
8. Some arguments are false.
True False
9. If a passage contains a conditional statement, then it does not contain an argument.
True False
10. Words like “because” and “since” are always followed by a premise.
True False
11. Commands are never statements.
True False
12. Well-crafted arguments should retain any repetition found in an argument because it emphasizes a point
or makes it more understandable.
True False
13. The Principle of Fairness requires that we be loyal to the original argument and not distort its meaning
when rewriting it as a well-crafted argument.
True False
14. A subconclusion is a statement that serves both as a conclusion and as a premise.
True False
15. An argument diagram should include all statements from the passage.
True False
16. An argument is a set of statements intended to provide information about a situation, topic, or event.
True False
17. In a well-crafted version of an argument, the conclusion is stated last.
True False
18. Rhetorical questions are statements.
True False
19. A discount is when you get something for less than the normal price.
True False
20. A hedge is a row of bushes planted to provide privacy.
True False
21. The Principle of Charity requires that we put an ambiguous or unclear argument in the best possible light
when rewriting it as a well-crafted argument.
True False
22. Two or more premises provide interdependent support for a conclusion when the removal of any one of
the premises decreases the support provided by the others.
True False
23. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
What is politically good cannot be morally bad. For what is good for a large number is also good for the
individual. (J. S. Mill)
24. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran could develop an atomic bomb as early as the middle of this
decade—not, as the CIA has predicted, at the turn of the century. Teheran [Iran] continues to host
nuclear-power experts from China, Russia, and South Korea. Additional support for what Iran describes
as a peaceful nuclear-energy program is coming from France, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan. (Al
Hamishmar, Tel Aviv, reprinted in World Press Review, Feb. 1993)
25. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement. . . .
decoration is not given to hide horrible things: but to decorate things already adorable. A mother does not
give her child a blue bow because he is so ugly without it. A lover does not give a girl a necklace to hide
her neck. (G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy)
26. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
One should always eat grapes downward—that is, always eat the best grape first; in this way there will be
none better left on the bunch, and each grape will seem good down to the last. If you eat the other way,
you will not have a good grape in the lot. Besides, you will be tempting providence to kill you before you
come to the best. (Samuel Butler)
27. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
One must know how a photograph was made in order to correctly interpret it. In this way, photographs
are like dental X rays, seismographs, and other records. Photographs are records, and a necessary part of
interpreting a record is knowing the causal chain that produced it. Some photographs made by specialized
equipment—like the electron microscope—would be reasonably misinterpreted by a viewer ignorant of
the origins.
28. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Since first appearing in 1981, some 1.5 million personal ads have been printed in Chinese newspapers
and magazines; more than 370,000 couples have been married as a direct result. (“It Adds Up,” World
Press Review, Feb. 1993)
29. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The tiger, whose population is liberally estimated at about 6,000, may become extinct in the next decade,
according to some wildlife experts. Increasingly, the beasts are being killed not for their pelts but for their
bones, which are used for medicinal purposes in China and Southeast Asia. (Indian Express, New Delhi)
30. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
There is a tragic irony in the fact that American troops are not only putting their lives on the line but are
also taking additional and unnecessary risks to defend some of the most undemocratic and intolerant
regimes in the world. (Jerusalem Post, Jerusalem, cited in World Press Review, Feb. 1991)
31. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Wealth brings us no good of itself. Therefore it is sought for the sake of other things. (Thomas Aquinas)
32. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Selective harvesting of timber is less damaging to the environment and healthier for local economies than
clear-cutting. . . . Selective harvesting uses the natural rhythms of a forest’s ecosystem instead of ignoring
them. Selection harvesters carefully choose trees for timber, thinning a tree stand by cutting down the
slow-growing trees that are likely to die within 15 or 20 years. They leave the healthier, faster-growing
trees alone to reseed the forest. Above all, these foresters avoid cutting too many trees for a quick profit,
and each decade they take a tree count to ensure that they are not over-cutting. (John Tibbetts, Utne
Reader, Jan./Feb. 1992)
33. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Of all the animals commonly eaten in the Western world, the pig is without doubt the most intelligent.
The natural intelligence of a pig is comparable and perhaps even superior to that of a dog; it is possible to
rear pigs as companions to human beings and train them to respond to simple commands much as a dog
would. (Peter Singer, Animal Liberation)
34. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The most important question is whether or not good farming can be understood as an industry. The
answer is that it cannot be so understood. The reasons are complicated, but they may be summed up in
two facts: first, farming depends on living creatures and biological processes, whereas the materials of
industry are not alive and the processes are mechanical; and, second, a factory is, and is expected to be,
temporary, whereas a farm, if well farmed, will last forever—and if poorly farmed, will be destroyed
forever. (Wendell Berry, “Stockman and the Plowman,” New York Times, Op-ed, Feb. 26, 1985)
35. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
If, for one crystal moment, the faithful—particularly the members of the American congregation—
allowed themselves to view their church through the cool eye of a potential employee instead of through
the opaque veil of programmed inhibition, they would observe a sexist organization that would rather
recruit from the dregs of mankind than employ the most educated, dedicated, saintly women or men
married to women. (Marjorie Hertelendy, “Letter to the Editor,” World Press Review, Feb. 1993)
36. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The Challenger spacecraft exploded after liftoff because an O-ring failed in one of the booster
rockets.
37. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Chemical elements, as well as compounds, can be represented by molecular formulas. Thus, oxygen is
represented by “O2,” sodium chloride by “NaCl,” and sulfuric acid by “H2SO4.”
38. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
If I cannot definitively prove that the usefulness of religion is in the past, and that its foundational books
are transparent fables, and that it is a man-made imposition, and that it has been an enemy of science and
inquiry, and that it has subsisted largely on lies and fears, and been the accomplice of ignorance and guilt
as well as of slavery, genocide, racism and tyranny, I can most certainly claim that religion is now fully
aware of these criticisms.” Christopher Hitchens, God is not Great (2007), p. 229.
39. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
40. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not an
argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The sea holds even more strange and wonderful forms. Plunge into the shallow waters off an Australian
coral island and the variety of fish, corals and shelly creatures will literally hit you in the face. Neon
colors, bodies of all shapes and sizes, fantastic geometrical designs are everywhere, and occasionally
there’s a glimpse of a giant se turtle, an octopus, or a darting shark.
Sean Carroll, Endless Forms Most Beautiful (2005), p. 3.
2 Key
1. In “While some scientists may disagree, it is generally accepted that homosexuality is a genetic trait,”
the statement “some scientists may disagree” is a
A. hedge.
B. discount.
C. assurance.
D. premise.
Howard – Chapter 02 #1
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
2. The Principle of Charity requires that we
A.
put an ambiguous or unclear argument in the best possible light when rewriting it as a well-crafted
argument.
B. ignore mistakes in reasoning when we agree with an argument’s conclusion.
C. not distort an argument’s meaning when rewriting it as a well-crafted one.
D. correct any mistakes in reasoning in an argument we are analyzing.
Howard – Chapter 02 #2
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
3. Which of the following is an example of a report?
A.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and
humans are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than
flee.
Howard – Chapter 02 #3
Subject area: 2.1 Arguments and Nonarguments
4. Which of the following is an example of an explanation?
A.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and
humans are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than
flee.
Howard – Chapter 02 #4
5. Which of the following is an example of an illustration?
A.
A mammal is a warm-blooded animal that nurses its young. So, for example, whales, cats and
humans are mammals but turtles, birds, and insects are not.
B. If Germany had invented the atomic bomb first, they would have won World War II.
C. 73 percent of all Americans are opposed to the death penalty.
D. Skunks get hit by cars more than other animals because they tend to stand their ground rather than
flee.
Howard – Chapter 02 #5
6. The Principle of Fairness requires that we
A. consider an individual to be innocent until proven guilty.
B.
not eliminate anything—including repetitions, assurances, and so on—when rewriting an argument
as a well-crafted one.
C. place the burden of proof on the person whose view is contrary to the majority opinion.
D.
be loyal to the original argument and not distort its meaning when rewriting it as a well-crafted
argument.
Howard – Chapter 02 #6
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
7. Which of the following is not a principle for rewriting arguments as well-crafted ones?
A. Be fair and charitable in interpreting the argument.
B. Employ uniform language.
C. Eliminate excess verbiage (e.g., discounts, assurances, hedges, repetition).
D. Place all conclusions and subconclusions after all premises.
Howard – Chapter 02 #7
Subject area: Appendix: Argument Diagrams
8. Some arguments are false.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #8
Subject area: 2.1 Arguments and Nonarguments
9. If a passage contains a conditional statement, then it does not contain an argument.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #9
Subject area: 2.1 Arguments and Nonarguments
10. Words like “because” and “since” are always followed by a premise.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #10
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
11. Commands are never statements.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #11
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
12. Well-crafted arguments should retain any repetition found in an argument because it emphasizes a
point or makes it more understandable.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #12
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
13. The Principle of Fairness requires that we be loyal to the original argument and not distort its
meaning when rewriting it as a well-crafted argument.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #13
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
14. A subconclusion is a statement that serves both as a conclusion and as a premise.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #14
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
15. An argument diagram should include all statements from the passage.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #15
Subject area: Appendix: Argument Diagrams
16. An argument is a set of statements intended to provide information about a situation, topic, or
event.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #16
Subject area: 2.1 Arguments and Nonarguments
17. In a well-crafted version of an argument, the conclusion is stated last.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #17
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
18. Rhetorical questions are statements.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #18
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
19. A discount is when you get something for less than the normal price.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #19
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
20. A hedge is a row of bushes planted to provide privacy.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 02 #20
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
21. The Principle of Charity requires that we put an ambiguous or unclear argument in the best possible
light when rewriting it as a well-crafted argument.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #21
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments
22. Two or more premises provide interdependent support for a conclusion when the removal of any one
of the premises decreases the support provided by the others.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 02 #22
Subject area: Appendix: Argument Diagrams
23. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
What is politically good cannot be morally bad. For what is good for a large number is also good for
the individual. (J. S. Mill)
1. What is good for a large number is also good for the individual.
So, 2. What is politically good cannot be morally bad.
Howard – Chapter 02 #23
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
24. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran could develop an atomic bomb as early as the middle of this
decade—not, as the CIA has predicted, at the turn of the century. Teheran [Iran] continues to host
nuclear-power experts from China, Russia, and South Korea. Additional support for what Iran
describes as a peaceful nuclear-energy program is coming from France, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and
Pakistan. (Al Hamishmar, Tel Aviv, reprinted in World Press Review, Feb. 1993)
1. Teheran [Iran] continues to host nuclear-power experts from China, Russia, and South Korea.
2. Additional support for what Iran describes as a peaceful nuclear-energy program is coming from
France, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan.
So, 3. Iran could develop an atomic bomb as early as the middle of this decade.
Howard – Chapter 02 #24
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
25. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement. . . .
decoration is not given to hide horrible things: but to decorate things already adorable. A mother does
not give her child a blue bow because he is so ugly without it. A lover does not give a girl a necklace
to hide her neck. (G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy)
1. A mother does not give her child a blue bow because he is so ugly without it.
2. A lover does not give a girl a necklace to hide her neck.
So, 3. Decoration is given to decorate things already adorable.
Howard – Chapter 02 #25
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
26. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
One should always eat grapes downward—that is, always eat the best grape first; in this way there will
be none better left on the bunch, and each grape will seem good down to the last. If you eat the other
way, you will not have a good grape in the lot. Besides, you will be tempting providence to kill you
before you come to the best. (Samuel Butler)
1. If one eats the best grape first, there will be none better left on the bunch.
2. If one eats the best grape first, each grape will seem good down to the last.
3. If you eat the other way, you will not have a good grape in the lot.
4. If you eat the other way, you will be tempting providence to kill you before you come to the best.
So, 5. One should always eat the best grape first.
Howard – Chapter 02 #26
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
27. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
One must know how a photograph was made in order to correctly interpret it. In this way, photographs
are like dental X rays, seismographs, and other records. Photographs are records, and a necessary
part of interpreting a record is knowing the causal chain that produced it. Some photographs made
by specialized equipment—like the electron microscope—would be reasonably misinterpreted by a
viewer ignorant of the origins.
1. Photographs are records.
2. A necessary part of interpreting a record is knowing the causal chain that produced it.
3. Some photographs made by specialized equipment—like the electron microscope—would be
reasonably misinterpreted by a viewer ignorant of the origins.
So, 4. One must know how a photograph was made in order to correctly interpret it.
Howard – Chapter 02 #27
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
28. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Since first appearing in 1981, some 1.5 million personal ads have been printed in Chinese newspapers
and magazines; more than 370,000 couples have been married as a direct result. (“It Adds Up,” World
Press Review, Feb. 1993)
NA-report
Howard – Chapter 02 #28
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
29. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The tiger, whose population is liberally estimated at about 6,000, may become extinct in the next
decade, according to some wildlife experts. Increasingly, the beasts are being killed not for their
pelts but for their bones, which are used for medicinal purposes in China and Southeast Asia. (Indian
Express, New Delhi)
NA-explanation
Howard – Chapter 02 #29
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
30. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
There is a tragic irony in the fact that American troops are not only putting their lives on the line
but are also taking additional and unnecessary risks to defend some of the most undemocratic and
intolerant regimes in the world. (Jerusalem Post, Jerusalem, cited in World Press Review, Feb. 1991)
NA-report
Howard – Chapter 02 #30
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
31. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Wealth brings us no good of itself. Therefore it is sought for the sake of other things. (Thomas
Aquinas)
1. Wealth brings us no good of itself.
So, 2. Wealth is sought for the sake of other things.
Howard – Chapter 02 #31
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
32. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Selective harvesting of timber is less damaging to the environment and healthier for local economies
than clear-cutting. . . . Selective harvesting uses the natural rhythms of a forest’s ecosystem instead of
ignoring them. Selection harvesters carefully choose trees for timber, thinning a tree stand by cutting
down the slow-growing trees that are likely to die within 15 or 20 years. They leave the healthier,
faster-growing trees alone to reseed the forest. Above all, these foresters avoid cutting too many trees
for a quick profit, and each decade they take a tree count to ensure that they are not over-cutting. (John
Tibbetts, Utne Reader, Jan./Feb. 1992)
1. Selective harvesting uses the natural rhythms of a forest’s ecosystem instead of ignoring them.
2. Selection harvesters carefully choose trees for timber, thinning a tree stand by cutting down the
slow-growing trees that are likely to die within 15 or 20 years.
3. Selection harvesters leave the healthier, faster-growing trees alone to reseed the forest.
4. Selection harvesters avoid cutting too many trees for a quick profit.
5. Each decade, selection harvesters take a tree count to ensure that they are not overcutting.
So, 6. Selective harvesting of timber is less damaging to the environment and healthier for local
economies than clear-cutting.
Howard – Chapter 02 #32
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
33. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Of all the animals commonly eaten in the Western world, the pig is without doubt the most intelligent.
The natural intelligence of a pig is comparable and perhaps even superior to that of a dog; it is
possible to rear pigs as companions to human beings and train them to respond to simple commands
much as a dog would. (Peter Singer, Animal Liberation)
1. It is possible to rear pigs as companions to human beings.
2. It is possible to train pigs to respond to simple commands much as a dog would.
So, 3. The natural intelligence of a pig is comparable and perhaps even superior to that of a dog.
So, 4. Of all the animals commonly eaten in the Western world, the pig is without doubt the most
intelligent.
Howard – Chapter 02 #33
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
34. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The most important question is whether or not good farming can be understood as an industry. The
answer is that it cannot be so understood. The reasons are complicated, but they may be summed up
in two facts: first, farming depends on living creatures and biological processes, whereas the materials
of industry are not alive and the processes are mechanical; and, second, a factory is, and is expected
to be, temporary, whereas a farm, if well farmed, will last forever—and if poorly farmed, will be
destroyed forever. (Wendell Berry, “Stockman and the Plowman,” New York Times, Op-ed, Feb. 26,
1985)
1. Farming depends on living creatures and biological processes.
2. The materials of industry are not alive and the processes are mechanical.
3. A factory is, and is expected to be, temporary.
4. A farm, if well farmed, will last forever—and if poorly farmed, will be destroyed forever.
So, 5. Good farming cannot be understood as an industry.
Howard – Chapter 02 #34
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
35. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
If, for one crystal moment, the faithful—particularly the members of the American congregation—
allowed themselves to view their church through the cool eye of a potential employee instead of
through the opaque veil of programmed inhibition, they would observe a sexist organization that
would rather recruit from the dregs of mankind than employ the most educated, dedicated, saintly
women or men married to women. (Marjorie Hertelendy, “Letter to the Editor,” World Press Review,
Feb. 1993)
NA-single conditional statement
Howard – Chapter 02 #35
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
36. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The Challenger spacecraft exploded after liftoff because an O-ring failed in one of the booster
rockets.
NA-explanation
Howard – Chapter 02 #36
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
37. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Chemical elements, as well as compounds, can be represented by molecular formulas. Thus, oxygen is
represented by “O2,” sodium chloride by “NaCl,” and sulfuric acid by “H2SO4.”
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 02 #37
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments
38. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
If I cannot definitively prove that the usefulness of religion is in the past, and that its foundational
books are transparent fables, and that it is a man-made imposition, and that it has been an enemy of
science and inquiry, and that it has subsisted largely on lies and fears, and been the accomplice of
ignorance and guilt as well as of slavery, genocide, racism and tyranny, I can most certainly claim
that religion is now fully aware of these criticisms.” Christopher Hitchens, God is not Great (2007), p.
229.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 02 #38
39. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 02 #39
40. If the following passage contains an argument, write a well-crafted version of it; if the passage is not
an argument, classify it as a report, illustration, explanation, or single conditional statement.
The sea holds even more strange and wonderful forms. Plunge into the shallow waters off an
Australian coral island and the variety of fish, corals and shelly creatures will literally hit you in the
face. Neon colors, bodies of all shapes and sizes, fantastic geometrical designs are everywhere, and
occasionally there’s a glimpse of a giant se turtle, an octopus, or a darting shark.
Sean Carroll, Endless Forms Most Beautiful (2005), p. 3.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 02 #40
2 Summary
Category # of Questions
Howard – Chapter 02 40
Subject area: 2.1 Arguments and Nonarguments 4
Subject area: 2.2 Well-Crafted Arguments 13
Subject area: Appendix: Argument Diagrams 3
Subject area: Identifying arguments; well-crafted arguments 15

 

10
Student: ___________________________________________________________________________
1. Which of the following is not a requirement for an argument to be cogent?
A. The conclusion must be true.
B. The premises must be true.
C. It must be probable that if the premises are true, then the conclusion is true.
D. The truth of the premises must make the conclusion probable.
2. The essential feature of a strong argument is that
A. it has a true conclusion.
B. it has all true premises.
C. the conclusion is likely (but not necessarily) true, if the premises are true.
D. the conclusion is necessarily true, if the premises are true.
3. Which of the following is the form of a statistical syllogism?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
4. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed when
A. one argues that something is true given that it hasn’t been shown to be false.
B. one seeks to meet the standard of strength but knowingly omits relevant evidence.
C. one constructs a valid argument using premises that are not known to be true.
D. one unknowingly omits relevant evidence that could have been discovered through some investigation.
5. Which of the following is a statistical syllogism?
A.
18 percent of all students who take beginning chemistry fail the course; Mark is taking beginning
chemistry; so, Mark will fail the course.
B.
61 percent of people who watch television at least four hours per day are illiterate; the people on my
dorm floor watch at least four hours of television per day; so 61 percent of the people on my dorm floor
are illiterate.
C.
100 percent of the ingredients in this cake are of the highest quality; flour is an ingredient in this cake;
so, the flour in this cake is of the highest quality.
D.
83 percent of people who smoke cigarettes experience serious related health problems later in life; Chris
smokes cigarettes; so, Chris will experience serious related health problems later in life.
6. The primary difference between inductive and deductive logic is that
A.
deductive logic evaluates arguments for validity while inductive logic evaluates arguments for
strength.
B.
deductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are general and whose conclusion is specific,
while inductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are specific and whose conclusion is general.
C. deductive logic provides algorithms for testing arguments, while inductive logic is intuitive.
D.
deductive logic can be used to determine the truth of the premises, while inductive logic can only
indicate whether the premises are likely to be true.
7. Which of the following is the form of an argument from authority?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
8. Arguments from authority involve appeals to what kind of authority?
A. organizational authorities (e.g., a superior officer in the military)
B. cognitive authorities (e.g., an expert witness)
C. legal authorities (e.g., a judge)
D. academic authorities (e.g., a college professor)
9. A fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the arguer
A. fails to note that an equally reliable authority denies the conclusion.
B. fails to address questions of clarity.
C. fails to identify anyone who disagrees with the authority cited.
D. fails to provide evidence that the authority cited is a reliable cognitive authority.
10. Arguments from authority may fail in all of the following ways except
A. committing a fallacy of incomplete evidence.
B. drawing on a misinterpretation of the authority cited.
C. failing to cite a majority of experts on the topic in question.
D. appealing to the opinion of an organizational authority.
11. Which of the following is the form of an induction by enumeration?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
12. In the statement “62 percent of all Americans with siblings are happy,” the population is
A. 62 percent.
B. Americans.
C. happy people.
D. Americans with siblings.
13. In the statement “99 percent of all philosophers are wise but not wealthy,” the sample is
A. 99 percent of philosophers.
B. philosophers.
C. wise people.
D. wise but not wealthy people.
14. The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises for inductions by enumeration when
A. the sample is incomplete (not all members of the population were surveyed).
B. the sample is representative of the population.
C. the sample is too small or is biased.
D. the sample is random.
15. In order to be random, a sample of a population must meet the requirement that
A. each member of the population has the opportunity to be surveyed.
B. the population be representative of a larger population.
C. each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for observation.
D. each member of the sample is free of distorting psychological factors.
16. Which of the following is not a characteristic of a good sample of a population?
A. Members of the sample were selected randomly.
B. The sample is of an appropriate size.
C. The sample is not distorted by psychological factors.
D. Members of the sample were self-selected.
17. The appropriate size of a sample depends on all of the following except
A. the degree of uniformity within the population.
B. the nature of the questions to be asked.
C. the size of the population from which the sample is to be taken.
D. the acceptable degree of error.
18. The sampling error is defined as
A.
the difference between the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question and the
percentage of the population that has it.
B. the ratio of randomness to population uniformity over time.
C.
the percentage of the population represented in the sample compared to the percentage of the sample
that has the attribute in question.
D. the percentage of the population represented in the sample.
19. In which of the following samples is the sampling error the lowest?
A. 1,000
B. 300
C. 750
D. 150
20. Of the following, which would reduce sampling error?
A. decreasing the size of the population from which the sample is taken
B. sampling only populations with a high degree of uniformity
C. eliminating distortions caused by psychological factors
D. increasing the size of the sample
21. If the occurrence of X brings about Y, then
A. X is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for Y.
B. X is a necessary condition for Y.
C. Y is a necessary condition for X.
D. Y is a sufficient condition for X.
22. When one attempts to establish the cause of something by identifying a common factor in a range of
cases, one is using the method of
A. agreement.
B. difference.
C. residues.
D. concomitant variation.
23. The method of difference involves
A. identifying a common factor in a range of cases.
B. comparing two or more cases in which the effect is present in different degrees.
C. comparing two cases, one in which the effect is present and one in which the effect is absent.
D. eliminating causes that have already been identified.
24. Formulating and testing hypotheses involves
A. identifying others who have accepted the hypothesis.
B. considering the implications of the hypothesis.
C. modifying the hypothesis in light of disconfirming evidence.
D. demonstrating the weakness of alternative hypotheses.
25. A confirming instance of a hypothesis is
A. a demonstration of its explanatory power.
B. a case in which an implication of the hypothesis is observed to be true.
C. its susceptibility to empirical testing.
D. its conformity with other well-established hypotheses.
26. Which of the following would strengthen an argument from analogy?
A. discovering relevant similarities between the things compared
B. discovering relevant dissimilarities between the things compared
C. identifying things relevantly similar to the objects but that lack the property in question
D. restating it using psychologically more persuasive language
27. The probability that I will not select a king from a well-shuffled deck of cards is
A. 4/52 or 1/13
B. 1/52
C. 3/52
D. 48/52 or 12/13
28. Given that p and q are mutually exclusive, to determine P(p ⋁ q) we should use
A. the restricted disjunction rule.
B. the general disjunction rule.
C. the restricted negation rule.
D. the general conjunction rule.
29. When “→” is understood as the material conditional, P(p → q) is equal to
A. P(p) + P(q/p).
B. P(~p ⋁ q).
C. 1 – P(p • q).
D. P(~p) – P(q).
30. Which of the following is the general disjunction rule?
A. If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q).
B. If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p • q) = P(p) + P(q).
C. P(p ⋁ ~p) = P(p) – P(~p).
D. P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q) – P(p • q).
31. Suppose you draw a card from a deck, do not replace it, then draw a second card. What rule would you
use to determine the probability of drawing an ace and then drawing a black card?
A. the conditional rule: P(p • q)/P(p)
B. the general conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q/p)
C. the restricted conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q)
D. the restricted disjunction rule: P(p) + P(q)
32. Suppose that P(h/e) = 5/9. Then P(~h/e) is
A. 5/9.
B. 4/9.
C. 1/9.
D. 4/5.
33. Suppose that P(h) = 3/5, P(e/h) = 2/5, and P(e/~h) = 3/5. Bayes’ theorem reveals that
A. P(~h) = 2/5.
B. P(e/~h) > P(e/h).
C. P(h/e) = 6/12.
D. P(h/e) = 6/25.
34. Applied to evidence e and hypothesis h, the conditional rule says P(h = e) =
A.
B.
C.
D.
35. A strong argument guarantees the truth of its conclusion.
True False
36. A cogent argument is one that is both strong and has all true premises.
True False
37. Cogent arguments can have false conclusions.
True False
38. The strength of an argument is determined solely by its form.
True False
39. An argument with false premises is uncogent.
True False
40. A statistical syllogism argues that because a certain percentage of a group has a certain characteristic and
a particular thing is a member of that group, that particular thing must also have that characteristic.
True False
41. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in a statistical syllogism when one knowingly omits
relevant evidence that bears on the truth of the conclusion.
True False
42. The percentage cited in a statistical syllogism may be less than 50.
True False
43. Some statistical syllogisms may be stronger than others.
True False
44. Deductive arguments proceed from the general to the specific while inductive arguments proceed from
the specific to the general.
True False
45. In order to be properly constructed, an argument must avoid any fallacy of incomplete evidence.
True False
46. Whether an argument from authority is strong depends on whether the authority cited is reliable.
True False
47. In order to be strong, an argument from authority must appeal to what a reliable and relevant source
says.
True False
48. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the authority cited
is not infallible.
True False
49. When two or more authorities disagree on a point, we can avoid a fallacy of incomplete evidence by
drawing on a wider range of reliable authorities.
True False
50. A sample is a subset of a population.
True False
51. The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises in inductions by enumeration when the sample is too small or is
biased.
True False
52. A sample is biased when it is not representative of a population.
True False
53. A population must have a high degree of uniformity in order for a random sample to be possible.
True False
54. If a sample of a population is not random, then it is biased.
True False
55. The smaller the sample of a population, the larger the margin of sampling error.
True False
56. The sampling error is the difference between the percentage of one random sample that has an attribute
and the percentage of another random sample of the same population that has that attribute.
True False
57. Mill’s Methods provide us with patterns of reasoning to reach general conclusions of the form “All P are
Q.”
True False
58. A cause is a necessary condition for an event if its presence is enough to bring about the event.
True False
59. In using the method of agreement, one attempts to identify a common factor in a range of cases.
True False
60. The method of difference involves identifying ways in which differences between events influence our
perception of them.
True False
61. When a cause is established by identifying a correlation between two phenomena, the method of residues
is being used.
True False
62. Testing a scientific hypothesis involves identifying the implications of the hypothesis and observing
whether they occur.
True False
63. Rejecting a scientific hypothesis is strictly a matter of applying modus tollens reasoning.
True False
64. A scientific hypothesis is confirmed when at least one of its implied consequences holds true.
True False
65. In an argument by analogy, the more relevant dissimilarities there are between the objects being
compared, the less likely the conclusion is to be true.
True False
66. When comparing two objects—A and B—to the extent that things (other than A) relevantly similar to B
lack the property in question, the analogy between A and B breaks down.
True False
67. In an argument by analogy, the more relevant similarities between the objects being compared, the
weaker the analogy.
True False
68. The tautologies of statement logic have a probability of one.
True False
69. The probability of A • ~A is greater than zero.
True False
70. A set of statements is exhaustive if they can’t all be true.
True False
71. B and ~B are mutually exclusive.
True False
72. A and ~A are exhaustive.
True False
73. The restricted disjunction rule only applies to disjunctions of statements that are mutually exclusive.
True False
74. P(A ⋁ ~A) = P(A) + P(~A).
True False
75. P(~S) = P(S) – 1.
True False
76. If the probability of S is .25 or 1/4, then the probability of ~S is .25 or 1/4.
True False
77. The general rule of disjunction applies to any pair of statements.
True False
78. The probability that p is true given that q is true can be formulated as P(q/p).
True False
79. Two statements are independent when neither affects the probability of the other.
True False
80. If we know that P(h/e) = 3/5, we may conclude that P(~h/e) = 2/5.
True False
81. Bayes’ theorem cannot be applied if a precise numerical value cannot be assigned to the prior probability
of the hypothesis.
True False
82. Bayes’ theorem can be used when there are more than two hypotheses being compared.
True False
83. P(e/h) is the probability that the hypothesis is true given that the evidence is present.
True False
84. P(~h/e) = 1 – P(h/e)
True False
85. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
Voluntary tests of 25,000 drivers throughout the United States showed that 25 percent of them use some
drug, but that 85 percent use no drugs at all while driving. The conclusion was that 15 percent of U.S.
drivers do use drugs while driving. A remarkable conclusion. The tests were taken at random times of the
day at randomly selected freeway restaurants.
86. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
A recent survey of students currently enrolled at Northern University indicated that 96 percent plan to
return to the campus in the fall. Rosemary is currently enrolled at Northern University, so odds are she’ll
be returning to the campus in the fall, even though she has been offered a full scholarship at Oxford
University.
87. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
By 2,025, at least 51 percent of Americans will be over the age of 65. My neighbor’s great-greatgranddaughter
is an American, so by 2,025 she will be over the age of 65.
88. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
In 30 percent of all heterosexual married couples in the United States, the woman makes as much as or
more than the man. So, I’ll bet that means that Susan Sedgwill makes more money than her husband Tom
Sedgwill.
89. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
On average, men with only a high school degree make only 25 percent as much money in a lifetime
as men with a college degree. That means that Peter, who has a high school degree but never finished
college, will only make 25 percent as much money as his brother Bill, who has both a high school and a
college degree.
90. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
I stood at the entrance to the Business School and asked 24 Southern University students going into
the building who they favored for student body president. Sixteen of the 24 said they favored Jaxson, a
marketing major. So, in the campuswide election, Jaxson will get two-thirds of the vote. (Northern has a
student population of 12,000).
91. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
Three times Janis brought a half-gallon of water to a boil, and each time it began boiling at 212 degrees
Fahrenheit. Janis concluded that this is the boiling point of water.
92. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
In a recent random poll of New Jersey voters, 73 percent of the 4,622 respondents said they would
vote Republican in the race for seats in the state’s House of Representatives. Consequently, after the
next election Republicans are sure to take the majority of available seats in the New Jersey House of
Representatives.
93. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
63 percent of the 1,432 people who filled out questionnaires at Armadillo Mall in Texas are in favor of
the death penalty. Consequently, 63 percent of Americans are in favor of the death penalty.
94. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
A random, nationwide telephone survey of 2,600 people asked if the respondents had ever committed
a felony that had gone undetected. Less than 2 percent said yes. Consequently, over 98 percent of the
felonies committed are detected.
95. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Nettie’s car flunked the VET test in Louisville with carbon emissions of 25, 000 parts per million. After
replacing the muffler and tailpipe, Nettie had her car retested and it passed—this time with carbon
emissions of only 2,500 parts per million, well within the range of emissions for the normal operation of
a car. On the basis of this experience, Nettie decided to have her muffler and tailpipe checked before each
VET test in the future.
96. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Benjamin observed the hibernation pattern of the small brown bear over a period of fifteen years. In the
first five years the winters were unseasonably warm, with temperatures rarely dipping below freezing,
and during that period of time Benjamin noticed that the bears hibernated very little. During the next
five years, the winters were quite harsh (temperatures consistently below 0°) and the bears were in
hibernation throughout most of the winter. Over the past five years the winters have been about average
with temperatures consistently hovering in the 20s, and Benjamin has noticed that although the bears
were more active than they had been the previous five years, they were not nearly as active as they had
been during the first five years of the study. He concluded on the basis of these observations that there is
a direct causal relationship between the winter temperatures and the length of hibernation for the small
brown bear.
97. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
After eating lunch at the same restaurant, five people became ill with food poisoning. Inspectors from
the Health Department learned the following: Bill had chicken, potato salad, green beans, and tapioca
pudding; Alice had the roast duck, tossed salad, asparagus with béarnaise sauce, and the tapioca pudding;
Patricia had the beef wellington, Waldorf salad, tapioca pudding, and steamed broccoli; James had lamb,
tzadziki, ouzo, and tapioca pudding; and Peter had scallops, a tossed salad, steamed broccoli, and the
tapioca pudding. The inspectors concluded that since they all had the tapioca pudding for dessert, it was
what caused the outbreak of botulism (food poisoning).
98. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Eastlake planted sunflowers in 64 separate plots, varying soil composition with the absence or presence
of six ingredients (potash, potassium, iron, etc.) with one plot for each possible combination. The
sunflowers that grew invariably came in two sizes. Upon further investigation, Eastlake found that the
larger plants were always in plots containing nitrate. As a result, nitrate has now become a standard
ingredient in sunflower fertilizer.
99. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
A criminologist hypothesized that the rate of unemployment is causally connected with the rate of violent
crime. Observing that the crime rate increased as the level of unemployment increased and decreased as
unemployment decreased, she concluded that the rate of violent crime in a community has a direct causal
effect on the rate of unemployment.
100.Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Patricia noticed that every time she set something on her kitchen counter, it ended up on the floor next to
the cat. First she noticed this happened with a pencil, and then a marble. She thought it might be that the
counter was sloped and round things rolled off, but then it happened to one of her cat’s square catnip toys.
She concluded that her dog was trying to get the cat in trouble.
101.Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
A local refrigerator manufacturer has been experimenting with new designs for vegetable bins, suspecting
that humidity level was a critical factor in the length of time vegetables stay fresh. The first design
maintained a humidity level of 10 percent but the vegetables shriveled in a fairly short time. Another
design maintained a humidity level of 60 percent but the vegetables began to rot in less than two days.
The third design tested maintained a humidity level of 28 percent. The vegetables in this bin stayed fresh
for five days, much longer than the industry standard of three days. The manufacturer concluded the
experiments, satisfied that optimum humidity level is critical for maintaining the freshness of vegetables
as long as possible.
102.Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Nathan has been having problems with his computer. Occasionally it locks up and will not respond
to any commands from the keyboard, and it doesn’t seem to matter what program he is running at the
time. Although the error message he receives indicates a problem with memory, he concludes that
the evil Microsoft Corporation is attempting to establish a monopoly by crashing any non-Microsoft
programs.
103.Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
George has been having a streak of unusually bad luck. He totaled his car in a snowstorm last week, then
fell on the ice and broke his leg. Two days later his wife left him, saying she was no longer willing to put
up with his “little infidelities.” Then just yesterday, he was fired from his job as a computer programmer
because his program error rates were consistently too high and he missed too many deadlines. He began
to regret ignoring his mother’s advice to throw a pinch of salt over his left shoulder after he spilled that
salt last month.
104.Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Jorge has been struggling to earn an A in his history class. He received a 78 percent on his first exam
after studying for one whole hour. For the second exam, Jorge studied almost two hours, and earned 87
percent. For each of the last two exams, Jorge studied for one hour each day over the week before the
exam and earned 97 percent and 98 percent. He realizes now that performing well on a test often requires
a significant amount of study time.
105.Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at least
one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Over the last year, Janelle has subscribed to Mother Jones, and the Utne Reader, both of which are liberal
political magazines. She has enjoyed reading most of the articles in each issue. When Janelle hears about
The New Republic, a new conservative political magazine, she decides to subscribe, expecting that she
will enjoy reading at least some of the articles in the coming year.
106.Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at least
one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Nancy is thinking of buying a new car. In 1986 she bought a new Honda Civic and was very happy with
it. It was a two-door hatchback with a four-cylinder engine and manual transmission (stick shift). In 1994
she bought another new two-door hatchback Honda Civic with manual transmission and a four-cylinder
engine. Both cars got between 36 and 40 miles per gallon. In the market for a new car again, Nancy is
planning to buy another Honda, this time a 2002 four-door Accord with automatic transmission and a sixcylinder
engine, and expects to get between 36 and 40 miles per gallon in her new car.
107.Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question. . . . the simplest form of the
theological argument from design, once well known under the name of “Paley’s watch.” Paley’s form of
it was just this: “If we found by chance a watch or some other intricate mechanism we should infer that it
had been made by someone. But all around us we do find intricate pieces of natural mechanism, and the
processes of the universe are seen to move together in complex relations; we should therefore infer that
these too have a Maker.” (B. A. O. Williams, “Metaphysical Arguments,” in The Nature of Metaphysics,
D. F. Pears, ed.)
108.Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at least
one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Young people must prepare for marriage in the same way that they prepare to drive and to swim.
Learning to swim and learning to drive require practice. No one can learn to drive unless he or she gets
behind the wheel, and no one can learn to swim unless he or she gets into the water. Thus, the only way
men and women can prepare for marriage is to live together and practice it.
109.Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at least
one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
The government ought not to regulate business, for just as the government does not regulate journalism
because journalists have to use their minds and follow their own judgment in their work, so too do people
in business have to use their minds and follow their own judgment in their work.
110.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a heart or a black card?
111.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a red card or a black card?
112.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a king or a black card?
113.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select the three of clubs or the
three of hearts?
114.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select an ace or a king?
115.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a jack • drawing a queen)
116.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing hearts on first draw • drawing hearts on second draw)
117.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing aces on three consecutive draws)
118.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a jack and drawing a queen on two consecutive draws, in either order)
119.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a jack on the first draw then drawing a queen on the second draw)
120.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a diamond • drawing a spade)
121.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing hearts on first draw • drawing spades on second draw)
122.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing eights on two consecutive draws)
123.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a red card and drawing a black card on two consecutive draws, in either order)
124.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second card.
Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as another, find
the following probability:
P(drawing a red card on the first draw • drawing a black card on the second draw)
125.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(~A)
126.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B • A)
127.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B ⋁A)
128.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(C/D)
129.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B → B)
130.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(~C)
131.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(D/C)
132.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(C ⋁D)
133.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B • ~B)
134.Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C and
D are independent, determine the following probability:
P((A • ~A) → B)
135.Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
The odds are 2 to 1 that Archarcharch will win the Kentucky Derby, but odds are 3 to 2 that Archarcharch
will win the Preakness. So, odds are that Archarcharch will not win both the Kentucky Derby and the
Preakness. (Note: The Derby and the Preakness are independent races.)
136.Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Odds are a million to one that Joe is the one who stole Alexa’s car. So, there’s no way he did it.
137.Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Even though I know the dice are not loaded or off balance, I just know that if I roll them I’ll get snake
eyes. I always have before.
138.Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Jane: I’d give you 5-to-1 odds that Peter has been lying to you!
Sue: So! You see that he has not been lying to me!
139.Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Northern and Southern are in different brackets for the semifinals. Odds are 4 to 7 that Northern will win
its semifinal game, and 5-to-3 that Southern will win its semifinal game. So, Northern is certain to be
playing Southern in the final game.
10 Key
1. Which of the following is not a requirement for an argument to be cogent?
A. The conclusion must be true.
B. The premises must be true.
C. It must be probable that if the premises are true, then the conclusion is true.
D. The truth of the premises must make the conclusion probable.
Howard – Chapter 10 #1
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
2. The essential feature of a strong argument is that
A. it has a true conclusion.
B. it has all true premises.
C. the conclusion is likely (but not necessarily) true, if the premises are true.
D. the conclusion is necessarily true, if the premises are true.
Howard – Chapter 10 #2
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
3. Which of the following is the form of a statistical syllogism?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
Howard – Chapter 10 #3
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
4. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed when
A. one argues that something is true given that it hasn’t been shown to be false.
B. one seeks to meet the standard of strength but knowingly omits relevant evidence.
C. one constructs a valid argument using premises that are not known to be true.
D. one unknowingly omits relevant evidence that could have been discovered through some
investigation.
Howard – Chapter 10 #4
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
5. Which of the following is a statistical syllogism?
A.
18 percent of all students who take beginning chemistry fail the course; Mark is taking beginning
chemistry; so, Mark will fail the course.
B
.
61 percent of people who watch television at least four hours per day are illiterate; the people on my
dorm floor watch at least four hours of television per day; so 61 percent of the people on my dorm
floor are illiterate.
C.
100 percent of the ingredients in this cake are of the highest quality; flour is an ingredient in this
cake; so, the flour in this cake is of the highest quality.
D.
83 percent of people who smoke cigarettes experience serious related health problems later in life;
Chris smokes cigarettes; so, Chris will experience serious related health problems later in life.
Howard – Chapter 10 #5
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
6. The primary difference between inductive and deductive logic is that
A. deductive logic evaluates arguments for validity while inductive logic evaluates arguments for
strength.
B.
deductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are general and whose conclusion is specific,
while inductive logic evaluates arguments whose premises are specific and whose conclusion is
general.
C. deductive logic provides algorithms for testing arguments, while inductive logic is intuitive.
D
.
deductive logic can be used to determine the truth of the premises, while inductive logic can only
indicate whether the premises are likely to be true.
Howard – Chapter 10 #6
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
7. Which of the following is the form of an argument from authority?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
Howard – Chapter 10 #7
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
8. Arguments from authority involve appeals to what kind of authority?
A. organizational authorities (e.g., a superior officer in the military)
B. cognitive authorities (e.g., an expert witness)
C. legal authorities (e.g., a judge)
D. academic authorities (e.g., a college professor)
Howard – Chapter 10 #8
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
9. A fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the arguer
A. fails to note that an equally reliable authority denies the conclusion.
B. fails to address questions of clarity.
C. fails to identify anyone who disagrees with the authority cited.
D. fails to provide evidence that the authority cited is a reliable cognitive authority.
Howard – Chapter 10 #9
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
10. Arguments from authority may fail in all of the following ways except
A. committing a fallacy of incomplete evidence.
B. drawing on a misinterpretation of the authority cited.
C. failing to cite a majority of experts on the topic in question.
D. appealing to the opinion of an organizational authority.
Howard – Chapter 10 #10
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
11. Which of the following is the form of an induction by enumeration?
A. A is similar to B in relevant respects, and B has property P. So, A has property P.
B. x percent of a sample of A is B. So, approximately x percent of A is B.
C. x percent of A is B. c is an A. So, c is a B.
D. R is reliable, and R asserts that S. So, S.
Howard – Chapter 10 #11
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
12. In the statement “62 percent of all Americans with siblings are happy,” the population is
A. 62 percent.
B. Americans.
C. happy people.
D. Americans with siblings.
Howard – Chapter 10 #12
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
13. In the statement “99 percent of all philosophers are wise but not wealthy,” the sample is
A. 99 percent of philosophers.
B. philosophers.
C. wise people.
D. wise but not wealthy people.
Howard – Chapter 10 #13
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
14. The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises for inductions by enumeration when
A. the sample is incomplete (not all members of the population were surveyed).
B. the sample is representative of the population.
C. the sample is too small or is biased.
D. the sample is random.
Howard – Chapter 10 #14
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
15. In order to be random, a sample of a population must meet the requirement that
A. each member of the population has the opportunity to be surveyed.
B. the population be representative of a larger population.
C. each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for observation.
D. each member of the sample is free of distorting psychological factors.
Howard – Chapter 10 #15
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
16. Which of the following is not a characteristic of a good sample of a population?
A. Members of the sample were selected randomly.
B. The sample is of an appropriate size.
C. The sample is not distorted by psychological factors.
D. Members of the sample were self-selected.
Howard – Chapter 10 #16
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
17. The appropriate size of a sample depends on all of the following except
A. the degree of uniformity within the population.
B. the nature of the questions to be asked.
C. the size of the population from which the sample is to be taken.
D. the acceptable degree of error.
Howard – Chapter 10 #17
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
18. The sampling error is defined as
A.
the difference between the percentage of the sample that has the attribute in question and the
percentage of the population that has it.
B. the ratio of randomness to population uniformity over time.
C.
the percentage of the population represented in the sample compared to the percentage of the
sample that has the attribute in question.
D. the percentage of the population represented in the sample.
Howard – Chapter 10 #18
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
19. In which of the following samples is the sampling error the lowest?
A. 1,000
B. 300
C. 750
D. 150
Howard – Chapter 10 #19
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
20. Of the following, which would reduce sampling error?
A. decreasing the size of the population from which the sample is taken
B. sampling only populations with a high degree of uniformity
C. eliminating distortions caused by psychological factors
D. increasing the size of the sample
Howard – Chapter 10 #20
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
21. If the occurrence of X brings about Y, then
A. X is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for Y.
B. X is a necessary condition for Y.
C. Y is a necessary condition for X.
D. Y is a sufficient condition for X.
Howard – Chapter 10 #21
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
22. When one attempts to establish the cause of something by identifying a common factor in a range of
cases, one is using the method of
A. agreement.
B. difference.
C. residues.
D. concomitant variation.
Howard – Chapter 10 #22
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
23. The method of difference involves
A. identifying a common factor in a range of cases.
B. comparing two or more cases in which the effect is present in different degrees.
C. comparing two cases, one in which the effect is present and one in which the effect is absent.
D. eliminating causes that have already been identified.
Howard – Chapter 10 #23
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
24. Formulating and testing hypotheses involves
A. identifying others who have accepted the hypothesis.
B. considering the implications of the hypothesis.
C. modifying the hypothesis in light of disconfirming evidence.
D. demonstrating the weakness of alternative hypotheses.
Howard – Chapter 10 #24
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
25. A confirming instance of a hypothesis is
A. a demonstration of its explanatory power.
B. a case in which an implication of the hypothesis is observed to be true.
C. its susceptibility to empirical testing.
D. its conformity with other well-established hypotheses.
Howard – Chapter 10 #25
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
26. Which of the following would strengthen an argument from analogy?
A. discovering relevant similarities between the things compared
B. discovering relevant dissimilarities between the things compared
C. identifying things relevantly similar to the objects but that lack the property in question
D. restating it using psychologically more persuasive language
Howard – Chapter 10 #26
Subject area: 10.4 Arguments from Analogy
27. The probability that I will not select a king from a well-shuffled deck of cards is
A. 4/52 or 1/13
B. 1/52
C. 3/52
D. 48/52 or 12/13
Howard – Chapter 10 #27
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
28. Given that p and q are mutually exclusive, to determine P(p ⋁ q) we should use
A. the restricted disjunction rule.
B. the general disjunction rule.
C. the restricted negation rule.
D. the general conjunction rule.
Howard – Chapter 10 #28
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
29. When “→” is understood as the material conditional, P(p → q) is equal to
A. P(p) + P(q/p).
B. P(~p ⋁ q).
C. 1 – P(p • q).
D. P(~p) – P(q).
Howard – Chapter 10 #29
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
30. Which of the following is the general disjunction rule?
A. If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q).
B. If p and q are mutually exclusive, then P(p • q) = P(p) + P(q).
C. P(p ⋁ ~p) = P(p) – P(~p).
D. P(p ⋁ q) = P(p) + P(q) – P(p • q).
Howard – Chapter 10 #30
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
31. Suppose you draw a card from a deck, do not replace it, then draw a second card. What rule would
you use to determine the probability of drawing an ace and then drawing a black card?
A. the conditional rule: P(p • q)/P(p)
B. the general conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q/p)
C. the restricted conjunction rule: P(p) × P(q)
D. the restricted disjunction rule: P(p) + P(q)
Howard – Chapter 10 #31
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
32. Suppose that P(h/e) = 5/9. Then P(~h/e) is
A. 5/9.
B. 4/9.
C. 1/9.
D. 4/5.
Howard – Chapter 10 #32
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
33. Suppose that P(h) = 3/5, P(e/h) = 2/5, and P(e/~h) = 3/5. Bayes’ theorem reveals that
A. P(~h) = 2/5.
B. P(e/~h) > P(e/h).
C. P(h/e) = 6/12.
D. P(h/e) = 6/25.
Howard – Chapter 10 #33
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
34. Applied to evidence e and hypothesis h, the conditional rule says P(h = e) =
A.
B.
C.
D.
Howard – Chapter 10 #34
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
35. A strong argument guarantees the truth of its conclusion.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #35
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
36. A cogent argument is one that is both strong and has all true premises.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #36
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
37. Cogent arguments can have false conclusions.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #37
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
38. The strength of an argument is determined solely by its form.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #38
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
39. An argument with false premises is uncogent.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #39
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
40. A statistical syllogism argues that because a certain percentage of a group has a certain characteristic
and a particular thing is a member of that group, that particular thing must also have that
characteristic.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #40
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
41. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in a statistical syllogism when one knowingly omits
relevant evidence that bears on the truth of the conclusion.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #41
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
42. The percentage cited in a statistical syllogism may be less than 50.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #42
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
43. Some statistical syllogisms may be stronger than others.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #43
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
44. Deductive arguments proceed from the general to the specific while inductive arguments proceed from
the specific to the general.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #44
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications
45. In order to be properly constructed, an argument must avoid any fallacy of incomplete evidence.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #45
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
46. Whether an argument from authority is strong depends on whether the authority cited is reliable.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #46
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
47. In order to be strong, an argument from authority must appeal to what a reliable and relevant source
says.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #47
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
48. The fallacy of incomplete evidence is committed in an argument from authority when the authority
cited is not infallible.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #48
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
49. When two or more authorities disagree on a point, we can avoid a fallacy of incomplete evidence by
drawing on a wider range of reliable authorities.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #49
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
50. A sample is a subset of a population.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #50
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
51. The fallacy of incomplete evidence arises in inductions by enumeration when the sample is too small
or is biased.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #51
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
52. A sample is biased when it is not representative of a population.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #52
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
53. A population must have a high degree of uniformity in order for a random sample to be possible.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #53
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
54. If a sample of a population is not random, then it is biased.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #54
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
55. The smaller the sample of a population, the larger the margin of sampling error.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #55
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
56. The sampling error is the difference between the percentage of one random sample that has
an attribute and the percentage of another random sample of the same population that has that
attribute.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #56
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration
57. Mill’s Methods provide us with patterns of reasoning to reach general conclusions of the form “All P
are Q.”
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #57
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
58. A cause is a necessary condition for an event if its presence is enough to bring about the event.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #58
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
59. In using the method of agreement, one attempts to identify a common factor in a range of cases.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #59
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
60. The method of difference involves identifying ways in which differences between events influence our
perception of them.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #60
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
61. When a cause is established by identifying a correlation between two phenomena, the method of
residues is being used.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #61
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
62. Testing a scientific hypothesis involves identifying the implications of the hypothesis and observing
whether they occur.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #62
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
63. Rejecting a scientific hypothesis is strictly a matter of applying modus tollens reasoning.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #63
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
64. A scientific hypothesis is confirmed when at least one of its implied consequences holds true.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #64
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning
65. In an argument by analogy, the more relevant dissimilarities there are between the objects being
compared, the less likely the conclusion is to be true.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #65
Subject area: 10.4 Arguments from Analogy
66. When comparing two objects—A and B—to the extent that things (other than A) relevantly similar to
B lack the property in question, the analogy between A and B breaks down.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #66
Subject area: 10.4 Arguments from Analogy
67. In an argument by analogy, the more relevant similarities between the objects being compared, the
weaker the analogy.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #67
Subject area: 10.4 Arguments from Analogy
68. The tautologies of statement logic have a probability of one.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #68
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
69. The probability of A • ~A is greater than zero.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #69
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
70. A set of statements is exhaustive if they can’t all be true.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #70
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
71. B and ~B are mutually exclusive.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #71
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
72. A and ~A are exhaustive.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #72
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
73. The restricted disjunction rule only applies to disjunctions of statements that are mutually
exclusive.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #73
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
74. P(A ⋁ ~A) = P(A) + P(~A).
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #74
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
75. P(~S) = P(S) – 1.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #75
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
76. If the probability of S is .25 or 1/4, then the probability of ~S is .25 or 1/4.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #76
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
77. The general rule of disjunction applies to any pair of statements.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #77
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
78. The probability that p is true given that q is true can be formulated as P(q/p).
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #78
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
79. Two statements are independent when neither affects the probability of the other.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #79
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability
80. If we know that P(h/e) = 3/5, we may conclude that P(~h/e) = 2/5.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #80
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
81. Bayes’ theorem cannot be applied if a precise numerical value cannot be assigned to the prior
probability of the hypothesis.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #81
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
82. Bayes’ theorem can be used when there are more than two hypotheses being compared.
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #82
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
83. P(e/h) is the probability that the hypothesis is true given that the evidence is present.
FALSE
Howard – Chapter 10 #83
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
84. P(~h/e) = 1 – P(h/e)
TRUE
Howard – Chapter 10 #84
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem
85. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
Voluntary tests of 25,000 drivers throughout the United States showed that 25 percent of them use
some drug, but that 85 percent use no drugs at all while driving. The conclusion was that 15 percent
of U.S. drivers do use drugs while driving. A remarkable conclusion. The tests were taken at random
times of the day at randomly selected freeway restaurants.
Not a statistical syllogism
Howard – Chapter 10 #85
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms
86. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
A recent survey of students currently enrolled at Northern University indicated that 96 percent plan
to return to the campus in the fall. Rosemary is currently enrolled at Northern University, so odds are
she’ll be returning to the campus in the fall, even though she has been offered a full scholarship at
Oxford University.
Statistical syllogism; discounting relevant information about her scholarship to a more prestigious
university
Howard – Chapter 10 #86
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms
87. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
By 2,025, at least 51 percent of Americans will be over the age of 65. My neighbor’s great-greatgranddaughter
is an American, so by 2,025 she will be over the age of 65.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #87
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms
88. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
In 30 percent of all heterosexual married couples in the United States, the woman makes as much as
or more than the man. So, I’ll bet that means that Susan Sedgwill makes more money than her husband
Tom Sedgwill.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #88
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms
89. Indicate whether or not the following argument has the form of a statistical syllogism; and, if the
argument contains information that suggests a possible fallacy of incomplete evidence, explain why.
On average, men with only a high school degree make only 25 percent as much money in a lifetime
as men with a college degree. That means that Peter, who has a high school degree but never finished
college, will only make 25 percent as much money as his brother Bill, who has both a high school and
a college degree.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #89
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms
90. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
I stood at the entrance to the Business School and asked 24 Southern University students going into
the building who they favored for student body president. Sixteen of the 24 said they favored Jaxson, a
marketing major. So, in the campuswide election, Jaxson will get two-thirds of the vote. (Northern has
a student population of 12,000).
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #90
Subject area: Induction by enumeration
91. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
Three times Janis brought a half-gallon of water to a boil, and each time it began boiling at 212
degrees Fahrenheit. Janis concluded that this is the boiling point of water.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #91
Subject area: Induction by enumeration
92. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
In a recent random poll of New Jersey voters, 73 percent of the 4,622 respondents said they would
vote Republican in the race for seats in the state’s House of Representatives. Consequently, after the
next election Republicans are sure to take the majority of available seats in the New Jersey House of
Representatives.
sample = 4,622 residents of New Jersey; population = residents of New Jersey; sample size is
sufficient (margin of error less than 2 percentage points), and random.
Howard – Chapter 10 #92
Subject area: Induction by enumeration
93. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
63 percent of the 1,432 people who filled out questionnaires at Armadillo Mall in Texas are in favor of
the death penalty. Consequently, 63 percent of Americans are in favor of the death penalty.
sample = 1,432 Texans in Armadillo Mall; population = Americans; sample size allows for a 4-point
margin of error, but is biased and not representative.
Howard – Chapter 10 #93
Subject area: Induction by enumeration
94. In the following induction by enumeration, identify the sample and the population, and discuss the
appropriateness of sample size and method of surveying.
A random, nationwide telephone survey of 2,600 people asked if the respondents had ever committed
a felony that had gone undetected. Less than 2 percent said yes. Consequently, over 98 percent of the
felonies committed are detected.
sample = 2,600 people responding to a telephone survey; population = people in the nation; sample
size only allows a 3-point margin of error, is random, but distorting psychological factor is present
(the type of question asked).
Howard – Chapter 10 #94
Subject area: Induction by enumeration
95. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Nettie’s car flunked the VET test in Louisville with carbon emissions of 25, 000 parts per million.
After replacing the muffler and tailpipe, Nettie had her car retested and it passed—this time with
carbon emissions of only 2,500 parts per million, well within the range of emissions for the normal
operation of a car. On the basis of this experience, Nettie decided to have her muffler and tailpipe
checked before each VET test in the future.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #95
Subject area: Mills Methods
96. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Benjamin observed the hibernation pattern of the small brown bear over a period of fifteen years.
In the first five years the winters were unseasonably warm, with temperatures rarely dipping below
freezing, and during that period of time Benjamin noticed that the bears hibernated very little. During
the next five years, the winters were quite harsh (temperatures consistently below 0°) and the bears
were in hibernation throughout most of the winter. Over the past five years the winters have been
about average with temperatures consistently hovering in the 20s, and Benjamin has noticed that
although the bears were more active than they had been the previous five years, they were not nearly
as active as they had been during the first five years of the study. He concluded on the basis of these
observations that there is a direct causal relationship between the winter temperatures and the length
of hibernation for the small brown bear.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #96
Subject area: Mills Methods
97. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
After eating lunch at the same restaurant, five people became ill with food poisoning. Inspectors from
the Health Department learned the following: Bill had chicken, potato salad, green beans, and tapioca
pudding; Alice had the roast duck, tossed salad, asparagus with béarnaise sauce, and the tapioca
pudding; Patricia had the beef wellington, Waldorf salad, tapioca pudding, and steamed broccoli;
James had lamb, tzadziki, ouzo, and tapioca pudding; and Peter had scallops, a tossed salad, steamed
broccoli, and the tapioca pudding. The inspectors concluded that since they all had the tapioca
pudding for dessert, it was what caused the outbreak of botulism (food poisoning).
Agreement
Howard – Chapter 10 #97
Subject area: Mills Methods
98. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
Eastlake planted sunflowers in 64 separate plots, varying soil composition with the absence or
presence of six ingredients (potash, potassium, iron, etc.) with one plot for each possible combination.
The sunflowers that grew invariably came in two sizes. Upon further investigation, Eastlake found
that the larger plants were always in plots containing nitrate. As a result, nitrate has now become a
standard ingredient in sunflower fertilizer.
Difference
Howard – Chapter 10 #98
Subject area: Mills Methods
99. Which of Mill’s Methods is illustrated in the following passage? If, in your opinion, the conclusion
reached indicates that an inadequate hypothesis was employed, explain why and formulate a better
hypothesis.
A criminologist hypothesized that the rate of unemployment is causally connected with the rate of
violent crime. Observing that the crime rate increased as the level of unemployment increased and
decreased as unemployment decreased, she concluded that the rate of violent crime in a community
has a direct causal effect on the rate of unemployment.
Concomitant variation
Howard – Chapter 10 #99
Subject area: Mills Methods
100. Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Patricia noticed that every time she set something on her kitchen counter, it ended up on the floor next
to the cat. First she noticed this happened with a pencil, and then a marble. She thought it might be
that the counter was sloped and round things rolled off, but then it happened to one of her cat’s square
catnip toys. She concluded that her dog was trying to get the cat in trouble.
Hypothesis: The dog is trying to get the cat in trouble. Although this hypothesis has explanatory
power and is liable to empirical testing, it is unnecessarily complicated (the cat might be doing it!).
Howard – Chapter 10 #100
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses
101. Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
A local refrigerator manufacturer has been experimenting with new designs for vegetable bins,
suspecting that humidity level was a critical factor in the length of time vegetables stay fresh. The first
design maintained a humidity level of 10 percent but the vegetables shriveled in a fairly short time.
Another design maintained a humidity level of 60 percent but the vegetables began to rot in less than
two days. The third design tested maintained a humidity level of 28 percent. The vegetables in this
bin stayed fresh for five days, much longer than the industry standard of three days. The manufacturer
concluded the experiments, satisfied that optimum humidity level is critical for maintaining the
freshness of vegetables as long as possible.
Hypothesis: Humidity is responsible for vegetable freshness. Meets all criteria.
Howard – Chapter 10 #101
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses
102. Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Nathan has been having problems with his computer. Occasionally it locks up and will not respond
to any commands from the keyboard, and it doesn’t seem to matter what program he is running at the
time. Although the error message he receives indicates a problem with memory, he concludes that
the evil Microsoft Corporation is attempting to establish a monopoly by crashing any non-Microsoft
programs.
Hypothesis: Microsoft Corporation is attempting to establish a monopoly. The hypothesis is
inconsistent with a well-established theory—namely, the one given in the error message.
Howard – Chapter 10 #102
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses
103. Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
George has been having a streak of unusually bad luck. He totaled his car in a snowstorm last week,
then fell on the ice and broke his leg. Two days later his wife left him, saying she was no longer
willing to put up with his “little infidelities.” Then just yesterday, he was fired from his job as a
computer programmer because his program error rates were consistently too high and he missed too
many deadlines. He began to regret ignoring his mother’s advice to throw a pinch of salt over his left
shoulder after he spilled that salt last month.
Hypothesis: Spilling salt and not throwing any over his left shoulder caused George’s bad luck. The
hypothesis is unnecessarily complicated and not liable to empirical testing.
Howard – Chapter 10 #103
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses
104. Identify the hypothesis in the following argument; and, if it fails to meet the four criteria for good
scientific hypotheses, state which criterion is violated, and explain your answer.
Jorge has been struggling to earn an A in his history class. He received a 78 percent on his first exam
after studying for one whole hour. For the second exam, Jorge studied almost two hours, and earned
87 percent. For each of the last two exams, Jorge studied for one hour each day over the week before
the exam and earned 97 percent and 98 percent. He realizes now that performing well on a test often
requires a significant amount of study time.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #104
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses
105. Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Over the last year, Janelle has subscribed to Mother Jones, and the Utne Reader, both of which are
liberal political magazines. She has enjoyed reading most of the articles in each issue. When Janelle
hears about The New Republic, a new conservative political magazine, she decides to subscribe,
expecting that she will enjoy reading at least some of the articles in the coming year.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #105
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy
106. Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Nancy is thinking of buying a new car. In 1986 she bought a new Honda Civic and was very happy
with it. It was a two-door hatchback with a four-cylinder engine and manual transmission (stick shift).
In 1994 she bought another new two-door hatchback Honda Civic with manual transmission and a
four-cylinder engine. Both cars got between 36 and 40 miles per gallon. In the market for a new car
again, Nancy is planning to buy another Honda, this time a 2002 four-door Accord with automatic
transmission and a six-cylinder engine, and expects to get between 36 and 40 miles per gallon in her
new car.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #106
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy
107. Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question. . . . the simplest form of the
theological argument from design, once well known under the name of “Paley’s watch.” Paley’s form
of it was just this: “If we found by chance a watch or some other intricate mechanism we should infer
that it had been made by someone. But all around us we do find intricate pieces of natural mechanism,
and the processes of the universe are seen to move together in complex relations; we should therefore
infer that these too have a Maker.” (B. A. O. Williams, “Metaphysical Arguments,” in The Nature of
Metaphysics, D. F. Pears, ed.)
1. The universe is similar to a watch in relevant respects (intricate mechanism, complex relations).
2. The watch has a maker.
So, 3. The universe has a maker.
Criticism: Not very many relevant similarities.
Howard – Chapter 10 #107
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy
108. Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
Young people must prepare for marriage in the same way that they prepare to drive and to swim.
Learning to swim and learning to drive require practice. No one can learn to drive unless he or she
gets behind the wheel, and no one can learn to swim unless he or she gets into the water. Thus, the
only way men and women can prepare for marriage is to live together and practice it.
1. Marriage is similar to driving and swimming in relevant respects (each requires preparation).
2. Learning to drive or swim requires practice (getting behind the wheel, getting in the water).
So, 3. Marriage requires practice (living together).
Criticism: Not many relevant similarities; relevant dissimilarity—driving and swimming are skills,
marriage is not.
Howard – Chapter 10 #108
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy
109. Analyze the following argument in terms of the schema for arguments from analogy. Briefly state at
least one criticism that calls the strength of the argument into question.
The government ought not to regulate business, for just as the government does not regulate
journalism because journalists have to use their minds and follow their own judgment in their work, so
too do people in business have to use their minds and follow their own judgment in their work.
1. Running a business is similar to journalism in relevant respects (both require people to use their
minds and follow their own judgment).
2. Journalism has the property that the government ought not to interfere with it.
So, 3. Running a business has the property that the government ought not to interfere.
Criticism: Relevant dissimilarity—journalism has an obligation to the public and often exposes
wrongdoing by the government, whereas business does not.
Howard – Chapter 10 #109
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy
110. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a heart or a black card?
P(heart ⋁ black) = 1/4 + 1/2 = 3/4
Howard – Chapter 10 #110
Subject area: Disjunctions
111. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a red card or a black
card?
P(red ⋁ black) = 26/52 + 26/52 = 1
Howard – Chapter 10 #111
Subject area: Disjunctions
112. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select a king or a black card?
P(king ⋁ black) = 4/52 + 26/52 = 30/52 = 15/26
Howard – Chapter 10 #112
Subject area: Disjunctions
113. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select the three of clubs or the
three of hearts?
P(3 clubs ⋁ 3 hearts) = 1/52 + 1/52 = 2/52 = 1/26
Howard – Chapter 10 #113
Subject area: Disjunctions
114. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Suppose that you have an ordinary deck of playing cards. Assuming that you are as likely to draw one
card as another, what is the probability that on your next draw you will select an ace or a king?
P(ace ⋁ king) = 1/13 + 1/13 = 2/13
Howard – Chapter 10 #114
Subject area: Disjunctions
115. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a jack • drawing a queen)
P(jack • queen) = 0
Howard – Chapter 10 #115
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
116. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing hearts on first draw • drawing hearts on second draw)
P(hearts on 1 • hearts on 2) = 13/52 × 12/51 = 156/2652 = 13/221
Howard – Chapter 10 #116
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
117. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing aces on three consecutive draws)
P(ace on 1 • ace on 2 • ace on 3) = 4/52 × 3/51 × 2/50 = 24/32,600 = 1/5525
Howard – Chapter 10 #117
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
118. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a jack and drawing a queen on two consecutive draws, in either order)
P((jack on 1 • queen on 2) ⋁ (queen on 1 • jack on 2)) = (4/52 × 3/51) + (4/52 × 3/51) = 16/2652 + 16/
2652 = 32/2652 = 8/663
Howard – Chapter 10 #118
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
119. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a jack on the first draw then drawing a queen on the second draw)
P(jack on 1 • queen on 2) = 4/52 × 4/51 = 16/2652 = 4/663
Howard – Chapter 10 #119
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
120. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a diamond • drawing a spade)
P(diamond • spade) = 0
Howard – Chapter 10 #120
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
121. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing hearts on first draw • drawing spades on second draw)
P(hearts on 1 • spades on 2) = 13/52 × 13/51 = 169/2652 = 13/204
Howard – Chapter 10 #121
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
122. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing eights on two consecutive draws)
P(eight on 1 • eight on 2) = 4/52 × 3/51 = 12/2652 = 1/221
Howard – Chapter 10 #122
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
123. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a red card and drawing a black card on two consecutive draws, in either order)
P((red on 1 • black on 2) ⋁ (black on 1 • red on 2)) = (4/52 × 3/51) + (4/52 × 3/51) = 16/2652 + 16/
2652 = 32/2652 = 8/663
Howard – Chapter 10 #123
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
124. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
You have an ordinary deck of cards. You draw one card, do not replace it, and then draw a second
card. Each series of draws begins with a full deck. Assuming you are as likely to draw one card as
another, find the following probability:
P(drawing a red card on the first draw • drawing a black card on the second draw)
P(red on 1 • black on 2) = 1/2 × 26/51 = 26/102 = 13/51
Howard – Chapter 10 #124
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals
125. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(~A)
P(~A) = 1 – 3/5 = 2/5
Howard – Chapter 10 #125
Subject area: Various compound statements
126. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B • A)
P(B • A) = P(B) × P(A/B) = 3/10 × 7/10 = 21/100
Howard – Chapter 10 #126
Subject area: Various compound statements
127. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B ⋁A)
P(B ⋁ A) = P(B) + P(A) – P(B • A) = 3/10 + 3/5 – 21/100 = 30/100 + 60/100 – 21/100 = 69/100
Howard – Chapter 10 #127
Subject area: Various compound statements
128. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(C/D)
P(C/D) = P(C) = 7/10
Howard – Chapter 10 #128
Subject area: Various compound statements
129. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B → B)
P(B → B) = 1
(“B → B” is a tautology)
Howard – Chapter 10 #129
Subject area: Various compound statements
130. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(~C)
P(~C) = 1 – 7/10 = 3/10
Howard – Chapter 10 #130
Subject area: Various compound statements
131. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(D/C)
P(D/C) = P(D) = 4/5
Howard – Chapter 10 #131
Subject area: Various compound statements
132. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(C ⋁D)
P(C ⋁ D) = P(C) + P(D) – P(C • D) = P(C) + P(D) – (P(C) × P(D)) = 7/10 + 4/5 – (7/10 × 4/5) = 15/10 –
28/50 = 75/50 – 28/50 = 47/50
Howard – Chapter 10 #132
Subject area: Various compound statements
133. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P(B • ~B)
P(B • ~B) = 0
(B • ~B is a contradiction)
Howard – Chapter 10 #133
Subject area: Various compound statements
134. Symbols list
Where necessary, you may use the list below to copy-and-paste symbols into your answer.
→; ↔; •; ~; ⋁; \; ≠; $; ×
Assume that P(A) = 3/5, P(B) = 3/10, P(C) = 7/10, P(D) = 4/5, and P(A/B) = 7/10. Assuming that C
and D are independent, determine the following probability:
P((A • ~A) → B)
P((A • ~A) → B) = 1
((A • ~A) → B) is a tautology)
Howard – Chapter 10 #134
Subject area: Various compound statements
135. Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
The odds are 2 to 1 that Archarcharch will win the Kentucky Derby, but odds are 3 to 2 that
Archarcharch will win the Preakness. So, odds are that Archarcharch will not win both the Kentucky
Derby and the Preakness. (Note: The Derby and the Preakness are independent races.)
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #135
Subject area: The strength of arguments
136. Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Odds are a million to one that Joe is the one who stole Alexa’s car. So, there’s no way he did it.
Weak argument. “No way” means 0 probability, but the probability Joe is guilty, though quite small, is
greater than 0.
Howard – Chapter 10 #136
Subject area: The strength of arguments
137. Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Even though I know the dice are not loaded or off balance, I just know that if I roll them I’ll get snake
eyes. I always have before.
On the classical theory, the argument is very weak, since the probability of rolling snake eyes with a
pair of ordinary six-sided dice is only 1/36. On the relative frequency theory, the argument is quite
strong!
Howard – Chapter 10 #137
Subject area: The strength of arguments
138. Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Jane: I’d give you 5-to-1 odds that Peter has been lying to you!
Sue: So! You see that he has not been lying to me!
Jane sets the probability that Peter is lying to Sue at 5/6. So, there is only a 1/6 chance that Peter is not
lying to Sue. Sue’s conclusion is weak if she accepts Jane’s odds.
Howard – Chapter 10 #138
Subject area: The strength of arguments
139. Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given
that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?
Northern and Southern are in different brackets for the semifinals. Odds are 4 to 7 that Northern will
win its semifinal game, and 5-to-3 that Southern will win its semifinal game. So, Northern is certain to
be playing Southern in the final game.
Answers will vary
Howard – Chapter 10 #139
Subject area: The strength of arguments
10 Summary
Category # of Questions
Howard – Chapter 10 139
Subject area: 10.1 Inductive and Deductive Logic: Contrasts and Clarifications 16
Subject area: 10.2 Arguments from Authority and Induction by Enumeration 26
Subject area: 10.2 The Rules of Probability 17
Subject area: 10.3 Bayes Theorem 8
Subject area: 10.3 Mills Methods and Scientific Reasoning 13
Subject area: 10.4 Arguments from Analogy 4
Subject area: Analyzing and evaluating arguments by analogy 5
Subject area: Conjunctions and conditionals 10
Subject area: Disjunctions 5
Subject area: Identifying and evaluating statistical syllogisms 5
Subject area: Induction by enumeration 5
Subject area: Mills Methods 5
Subject area: Scientific hypotheses 5
Subject area: The strength of arguments 5
Subject area: Various compound statements 10

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